The Fragility of Democracy: A Conversation with Daniel Ziblatt
The political landscape of the United States, and indeed much of the world, is fraught with tension. Deep political divides, anxieties about cultural identity, the rise of right-wing movements, and an overarching focus on security threats have created an atmosphere of uncertainty about the future of democracy. Daniel Ziblatt, a Harvard professor of political science, offers his expert insights into these complex issues, drawing on his extensive research and observations. Ziblatt’s work, particularly his book "How Democracies Die," co-authored with Steven Levitsky, has gained global recognition for its analysis of the erosion of democratic norms and institutions.
The 2024 election cycle saw a global wave of voters opting for change, ousting incumbent governments across the political spectrum. While this demonstrates the fundamental mechanism of democracy – the ability to remove unsatisfactory leaders – it also raises concerns about the underlying causes of such widespread dissatisfaction. Ziblatt argues that each democracy faces its own unique set of challenges, emphasizing that there is no single, universal explanation for democratic decline. He highlights the increasing polarization of politics, while acknowledging that this phenomenon is not unique to our time.
Ziblatt’s latest book, "Tyranny of the Minority," co-authored with Levitsky, delves into the structural weaknesses of the American political system. The authors explore how these vulnerabilities can be exploited by those seeking to undermine democratic principles. The rapid radicalization of the Republican Party, the January 6th Capitol attack, and the resurgence of Donald Trump are all alarming developments that have unfolded since the publication of "How Democracies Die." Ziblatt emphasizes the importance of finding a middle ground between catastrophizing every new event and normalizing extremist behavior. He acknowledges the difficulty of navigating this complex landscape, suggesting that it requires a sustained, marathon-like effort.
One of the key vulnerabilities of the American system, according to Ziblatt, is the immense power vested in the presidency, which is largely constrained by unwritten rules and norms. Trump, he argues, has expertly exploited this weakness. The question then becomes: what can effectively restrain such behavior? Ziblatt points to elections as the primary check on presidential power. Trump’s narrow victory margin in 2020 and the slim Republican majority in Congress suggest that his grip on power is not absolute. However, Trump’s continued influence over the Republican Party remains a significant concern.
The role of the judiciary is less clear. While some conservative Supreme Court justices have expressed skepticism towards Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, it was also the court’s decision to grant broad presidential immunity that paved the way for his return to politics. Ziblatt sees little institutional resistance to Trumpian politics beyond the electoral system. He notes the increasing willingness of Republicans to compromise fundamental democratic values for political gain. Meanwhile, criticism of the Democrats has focused on their failure to present a viable alternative to Biden in 2024 and Biden’s subsequent pardoning of individuals potentially vulnerable to Trump’s reprisals.
Ziblatt acknowledges that Biden’s pardons, while potentially protecting those individuals, also legitimized Trump’s methods and weakened the Democrats’ ability to criticize his own abuses of power. Biden’s actions seemed to embody a contradiction: acknowledging the abnormal nature of the transition by preemptively protecting potential targets, while simultaneously engaging in traditional courtesies like inviting Trump for tea at the White House and participating in inauguration ceremonies. Ziblatt also raises the significant influence of wealthy individuals, particularly tech magnates, on the political landscape. He admits to having previously underestimated the role of money in politics. While he previously believed that the flow of money from both sides of the political spectrum mitigated its negative impact on democracy, he now recognizes the undue influence individual billionaires can wield, particularly given their control over information dissemination platforms.
Ziblatt has also revised his understanding of social media’s impact on politics. He now believes that social media, especially in the absence of robust public broadcasting, creates its own dynamic that contributes to increased political polarization. He emphasizes the vulnerability of the American public sphere due to the comparative weakness of public service media in the United States compared to many European countries. While recognizing the similar rise of polarization and frustration across several European nations, Ziblatt highlights the structural differences between political systems, noting that multi-party European systems have their own set of challenges, such as complex and potentially protracted coalition-building processes.
Finally, Ziblatt addresses the common belief that extreme income inequality fuels societal division. While acknowledging the validity of this argument, he points out that Biden’s efforts to improve the US economy did not prevent the rise of Trumpism. He cites the difficulty in managing public perceptions of economic issues like inflation, noting that even as economic indicators improve, it can take time for people to feel the positive effects. Ziblatt also observes that public perception often diverges from reality, drawing on a Financial Times survey where Americans dramatically overestimated the severity of economic problems. He concludes that this gap between perception and reality is a key driver of polarization and a phenomenon that social scientists are only beginning to understand.
