Paragraph 1: A Voice of Foresight and Expertise
In 2022, the year Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Gudrun Persson, a prominent Russia expert, emerged as a key voice in explaining the actions of the Russian leadership. Her warnings about Putin’s intentions to crush Ukraine’s sovereignty, delivered with clarity and deep knowledge, resonated widely, capturing the attention of many. Now a Russia analyst for the Swedish Armed Forces, Persson continues to offer her insights, recently delivering a widely viewed address at the People and Defence conference in Sälen, Sweden. Her presentation attracted significantly more online viewers than those of high-ranking officials like the Swedish Prime Minister and the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, highlighting the public’s interest in her analysis of the situation.
Paragraph 2: Russia’s Resurgent Great Power Ambitions
During her address, Persson argued that Russia, under Putin’s leadership, seeks to regain its great power status, extending its influence from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. She pointed to the symbolic erection of statues of Stalin and Ivan the Terrible and the introduction of military training in primary schools as evidence of this resurgent nationalism and militaristic ideology. However, Persson also highlighted a key difference between Russia’s current approach and the Soviet Union’s: a more aggressive nuclear signaling policy. While the Soviet Union exercised caution in this area, modern Russia, possessing the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, has adopted a more assertive stance.
Paragraph 3: A Dangerous Shift in Nuclear Doctrine
Persson expressed concern over Russia’s recent revisions to its nuclear doctrine, which have lowered the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons. She noted that Russia’s publication of portions of its nuclear doctrine since 2020 signals a shift towards a more overt nuclear deterrence policy. The 2024 update to the doctrine is particularly alarming, suggesting a greater willingness to consider using nuclear weapons, even in limited battlefield scenarios. This represents a departure from the Cold War understanding between the US and Russia that a nuclear war would be mutually destructive.
Paragraph 4: The Resurgence of a Dangerous Debate
Persson highlighted a renewed debate within Russia regarding the feasibility of a "limited" nuclear war – a discussion reminiscent of the 1950s and 60s. The development of new types of nuclear weapons has fueled this discourse, raising concerns that Russia may believe it can use nuclear weapons on the battlefield without triggering a catastrophic global conflict. This shift in thinking, combined with the lowered threshold for nuclear weapon use, is a dangerous development that requires serious attention. Persson emphasized the need to take these signals seriously without resorting to alarmism.
Paragraph 5: A Precedent-Setting Missile Test and a World Without Arms Control
Persson pointed to Russia’s November test launch of a ballistic missile toward Ukraine as a significant and unprecedented event. Such missiles, with ranges of 100-300 kilometers and capable of carrying nuclear warheads, were never fired in this manner during the Cold War. This action, she argued, was a clear signal of Russia’s increasing willingness to escalate tensions. Putin’s subsequent announcement that these missiles will enter mass production by the end of the year further underscores the gravity of the situation. The absence of any meaningful arms control negotiations or treaties further compounds the risk, leaving the world in a precarious and uncertain state.
Paragraph 6: The Challenges of Negotiating with Russia & The Importance of Deterrence
Persson acknowledged the challenges of negotiating with Russia, citing its history of breaking agreements involving Ukraine and Georgia. However, she emphasized the importance of continued diplomatic efforts, stressing that any future agreements must include strong deterrent mechanisms to prevent violations. She argued that Russia understands two languages: military force and economic pressure. Significant restrictions on Russian oil exports, for example, could severely hamper its ability to sustain the war effort. As the international community navigates this complex and dangerous landscape, understanding Russia’s motivations and employing effective strategies for deterrence are crucial for maintaining peace and stability.
