A recent DN/Ipsos poll revealed that a significant majority of Swedes, 62 percent, support Sweden’s NATO membership. While 34 percent expressed strong confidence in the military’s ability to defend the country’s borders, this figure has slightly declined since last spring, although it still surpasses those with low confidence. This confidence doesn’t necessarily equate to a belief in Sweden’s ability to single-handedly repel an invasion. It more likely reflects trust in the competence of military leadership and a general appreciation for the importance of national defense. The reality, however, is that Sweden’s current defensive capabilities remain insufficient to counter a large-scale attack.
After years of underfunding, the Swedish government is finally increasing defense spending. The recent acquisition of 44 Leopard battle tanks is a welcome development. However, decades of military cutbacks have left a significant gap in Sweden’s defense posture, a gap that will require substantial time and resources to bridge. This long-term neglect is exemplified by the Visby-class corvettes, which are only now being equipped with anti-aircraft missiles – a crucial capability omitted from their original order in 2007, rendering them vulnerable to aerial threats. Such historical underinvestment underscores the challenge of rebuilding a credible defense.
Simultaneously, Russia’s military budget continues to expand dramatically. Putin’s recent increase of 265 billion SEK dwarfs Sweden’s entire defense budget, even after recent increases. This stark contrast emphasizes the strategic importance of NATO membership for Sweden. However, there’s a risk of overestimating the immediate protective power of the alliance. A misconception exists that mere membership in NATO guarantees security, acting as a sufficient deterrent without the need for robust national defense. This notion, particularly in light of recent signals from the US, appears dangerously naive.
The challenge of bolstering defense capabilities isn’t unique to Sweden. Across Europe, nations are scrambling to re-arm and upgrade their military resources. This widespread effort reflects growing concerns about regional security and highlights the need for both individual national preparedness and strengthened collective defense strategies, encompassing both military and non-military aspects. Even within NATO, there are significant disparities in defense preparedness, necessitating a more coherent and coordinated approach to collective security.
Beyond military hardware and personnel, critical infrastructure also plays a crucial role in national defense. Following Sweden’s NATO accession, the alliance immediately identified deficiencies in the country’s railway network. Effective defense requires the ability to rapidly transport large numbers of troops and heavy equipment, necessitating a robust and efficient rail system. Discrepancies in rail gauges between Sweden and Denmark, for example, create logistical bottlenecks that hinder rapid deployment and reinforcement. This highlights the need for infrastructure upgrades to ensure seamless interoperability within the alliance.
Focusing specifically on Sweden’s defense gaps, the country’s air defense capabilities remain severely limited. While the Patriot missile system is highly effective, Sweden possesses only four units and two air defense battalions. Current defense plans offer limited prospects for significant improvements before 2030. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the critical importance of robust air defense in protecting civilian populations. Furthermore, drone warfare has emerged as a central element in modern conflict, necessitating both offensive and defensive capabilities. Ukraine’s monthly consumption of around 30,000 drones starkly contrasts with Sweden’s limited drone inventory and the lack of widespread integration within its armed forces. This deficiency hinders the development of effective countermeasures against potential drone attacks and underscores the urgent need to adapt to evolving battlefield technologies. While Sweden’s defense posture is moving in the right direction, achieving a credible defense requires sustained financial commitment, unwavering focus, and a sense of urgency.
