The year-long conflict in Gaza, initiated by Israel against Hamas, has yielded a complex and contradictory outcome. Despite Israel’s stated objectives of eradicating Hamas and securing the release of over 100 Israeli hostages, neither goal has been achieved. The war has resulted in a devastating humanitarian crisis, with thousands of Palestinians killed and displaced. Hamas maintains its hold on Gaza and the fate of the Israeli hostages remains uncertain, with Hamas claiming a kidnapped Israeli infant, Kfir Bibas, is among the dead. Despite this lack of progress on its primary objectives, the Israeli government claims victory against what it calls an ”axis of evil,” citing the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a ceasefire with Iraqi militias, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. These claims, however, are contested, particularly the assertion that Israel orchestrated Assad’s downfall.
The war has dramatically reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While Israel has seen a cessation of attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi militias, new threats have emerged. Iran, for the first time, launched a direct attack against Israel, and Houthi rebels in Yemen escalated their retaliatory attacks in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The northern part of Israel, once a frequent target of Hezbollah missile strikes, has seen a return to normalcy with the ceasefire, allowing residents to return home. However, this relative peace stands in stark contrast to the continuing violence in Gaza.
Domestically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has experienced a turbulent year. He began 2024 with disastrous approval ratings, facing widespread protests against his right-wing government and its policies. The escalating conflict and the government’s perceived failures in Gaza fueled public anger, culminating in massive demonstrations across Israel following the discovery of the bodies of young Israeli hostages killed by Hamas. The public outcry, centered on the government’s handling of the hostage crisis, overshadowed the international condemnation of the thousands of Palestinian casualties in Gaza.
Despite the ongoing conflict and public discontent, Netanyahu’s political fortunes have taken a surprising turn. His approval ratings have rebounded, coinciding with the start of his corruption trial in Tel Aviv. This turnaround is partly attributed to the perceived successes against Hezbollah and the ceasefire in the north. The weakening of Hezbollah, a significant threat to Israel’s security, likely contributed to the shift in public opinion. However, the war in Gaza continues, and the unresolved hostage situation remains a significant challenge for the Israeli government.
While Israel has achieved a degree of stability in its northern borders, the conflict with Hamas and the escalating tensions with the Houthi rebels present ongoing security concerns. The Houthi attacks, originating from Yemen, have drawn direct Israeli retaliation, including the bombing of Sanaa’s international airport. This widening conflict adds another layer of complexity to the volatile situation in the Middle East. The imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House brings a new element to the equation. Trump’s promise to mediate peace in the Middle East has fueled speculation that Netanyahu might seek a ceasefire with Hamas as a gesture of goodwill to the incoming US President.
However, achieving a lasting peace remains a daunting challenge. The complex web of actors involved, the deep-rooted grievances, and the ongoing violence create significant obstacles to any negotiated settlement. Netanyahu’s potential desire for a ceasefire with Hamas is further complicated by the escalating conflict with the Houthi rebels and the underlying tensions with Iran. The continued violence in Gaza, the unresolved hostage crisis, and the emergence of new threats make the prospect of a comprehensive and enduring peace in the Middle East seem distant and uncertain.
