The swift and seemingly effortless takeover of Syria by rebel forces, culminating in the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, has stunned observers. While the Syrian government forces had been weakened and demoralized for a considerable period, the speed of the ten-day turnaround surprised many analysts, especially considering the limited support from Russia and Iran. The swift collapse raises crucial questions about the future governance of Syria and the implications for the region. The jubilant scenes on the streets, depicting a populace liberated from Assad’s brutal regime, mask an underlying uncertainty about what lies ahead. The most pressing question revolves around the nature of the impending government and the extent of its influence across the war-torn nation.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a formerly al-Qaeda-linked group, has emerged as the dominant force in this power vacuum. Their stated intention is to establish an Islamic state, a goal that goes beyond simply removing Assad. While HTS has recently projected a more pragmatic and tolerant image, attempting to distance itself from its extremist past and assuring protection for all religious groups, skepticism remains about the sincerity of this shift. The group’s previous rhetoric and actions raise concerns about the potential for a hardline Islamist government. The potential influence of other national and international Islamist forces on HTS, and the need to appease them, could further complicate the picture and push HTS towards a more hardline stance.
The complex tapestry of the Syrian conflict involves a multitude of actors, adding further layers of intricacy to the unfolding situation. HTS’s rise to power is intertwined with the involvement of Turkish-backed groups, adding a geopolitical dimension to the internal power struggle. Other rebel groups, ranging from Islamist factions to more moderate organizations, contribute to the fragmented landscape. The presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily comprising Kurdish, Assyrian, and Arab militias combating ISIS, introduces another layer of complexity. Furthermore, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, incorporating elements of the Free Syrian Army, further complicates the scenario. This intricate web of alliances and rivalries underscores the challenges in predicting the future of Syria.
The situation in Idlib, where HTS implemented Sharia law upon arrival in 2019 but has since relaxed some restrictions, offers a glimpse into a potential future. The allowance of churches, albeit with restrictions on bell ringing, presents a mixed picture of religious tolerance under HTS rule. This example underscores the uncertainty surrounding HTS’s governance and its potential impact on various aspects of Syrian society. The war-weary populace, while celebrating Assad’s downfall, is also apprehensive about what the future holds under HTS. Many are understandably concerned about the potential for a similarly intolerant and brutal regime.
While the majority of the country appears to be under HTS control, the coastal strip in western Syria, including the cities of Latakia and Tartous, which house a Russian naval base, remains under the regime’s control. This persistent government presence, coupled with the ongoing activities of various factions and militias controlling different areas, casts doubt on the notion that the recent events signify the end of the Syrian civil war. The continuing attacks by Turkish-backed groups north of Aleppo further highlight the ongoing instability and potential for further conflict. The situation in Syria is inextricably linked to the broader regional dynamics and the weakened international order. The volatile security environment in the region, further exacerbated by a decline in international cooperation, makes it difficult to isolate the Syrian situation from external influences.
The jubilation of the Syrian people, though understandable given the years of oppression under Assad, is tempered by the uncertainty of what lies ahead. The release of political prisoners, a significant development in the aftermath of the takeover, offers a glimmer of hope and allows families to reunite with loved ones who had disappeared during the conflict. However, the long-term prospects for Syria remain unclear, especially regarding the establishment of a stable and inclusive government. The country’s rich history, cultural diversity, and high levels of education are at risk under a hardline Islamist regime. The desire for stability, basic necessities, and a dignified life, expressed by the Syrian people, may be elusive if the new government adopts a highly conservative and intolerant approach.
