The German political landscape is bracing for a snap election, triggered by the internal implosion of the ruling coalition. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s red-green-liberal government, plagued by infighting, ultimately fractured when the liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP, was dismissed in early November. This led to the FDP’s complete withdrawal from the coalition, leaving a precarious situation. However, dissolving the government and calling for new elections isn’t a simple process in Germany. Due to its history, strict procedures are in place to prevent any potential abuse of power. The process entails a mandatory vote of no confidence against the Chancellor in the Bundestag, after which the Federal President can call for new elections. This vote is scheduled for Monday, and a resounding ’no’ for Scholz is virtually guaranteed, paving the way for elections likely to be held on February 23rd. All parties are already in election mode, with the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) leader, Friedrich Merz, keenly anticipating the opportunity.
For Friedrich Merz, 69, this election represents his likely last chance to become Chancellor. His political career has been marked by setbacks, including being ousted as CDU parliamentary leader by Angela Merkel in 2002, followed by a retreat from politics altogether. He attempted a comeback in 2018, vying for the CDU leadership but losing. However, fortune smiled upon him when the victorious Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer unexpectedly resigned in 2020, allowing Merz another chance to seize the party leadership, which he won. Now, two months before the election, the CDU/CSU alliance is leading the polls with a comfortable margin, according to a December survey. They hold a significant lead over the far-right AfD, with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens trailing behind. Adding further complexity to the electoral landscape is the emergence of Sahra Wagenknecht’s left-wing populist party, BSW, which, despite being formed just a year ago, is poised to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
The BSW, along with the AfD, advocate for an immediate end to military support for Ukraine and the initiation of peace talks with Russia. While neither party is likely to be part of a governing coalition, their anticipated electoral gains force established parties to acknowledge their positions and adapt their strategies accordingly. This puts pressure on the traditional political players to address the concerns of a significant portion of the electorate who resonate with these parties’ stances on the Ukraine war. The election outcome will inevitably shape Germany’s future foreign policy and its role in the ongoing conflict.
Should the CDU emerge victorious, Merz’s options for forming a government are limited. The AfD is traditionally excluded as a potential coalition partner due to its far-right ideology. Similarly, the left-wing BSW is an unlikely ally. The FDP’s future in parliament is uncertain, as they are currently polling below the 5% threshold. This leaves the SPD and the Greens as potential coalition partners. Merz has indicated that the Greens are closer to his position on foreign policy, particularly regarding military aid to Ukraine. However, a significant point of contention remains on energy policy, a crucial issue in this election.
Germany’s energy crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the cessation of Russian gas imports, has severely impacted the country’s industrial sector, leading to job losses and economic uncertainty. The CDU favors exploring the possibility of reopening recently decommissioned nuclear power plants, a stance initially supported by the party but subsequently reversed. However, forming a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, who staunchly oppose nuclear power, would make reviving this option virtually impossible. This leaves Merz in a difficult position, needing to balance his party’s energy policy preferences with the realities of coalition building.
The energy question is central to the German election. High energy prices have hit key industries hard, resulting in announced layoffs and impacting the overall economy. While the CDU has expressed interest in revisiting the decision to shutter nuclear power plants, forming a government that could implement such a policy reversal appears improbable given the current political landscape. This leaves Merz facing a complex challenge – navigating between his party’s stance on nuclear energy and the need to form a viable coalition. The energy crisis, intertwined with the political calculus of coalition building, will undoubtedly be a decisive factor in the upcoming elections.
In summary, Germany is on the cusp of a significant political shift, with the impending snap election setting the stage for potential power realignments. The anticipated gains by both the far-right AfD and the left-wing BSW signal a growing public sentiment towards alternative political voices, forcing the established parties to grapple with these evolving dynamics. The outcome of the February election will have far-reaching implications for Germany’s domestic and foreign policy, particularly concerning the energy crisis and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Friedrich Merz, facing his potentially last chance to become Chancellor, must navigate a complex political landscape, balancing his party’s platform with the pragmatic necessities of forging a governing coalition. The election outcome is far from certain, and the coming weeks will be crucial in determining Germany’s political future.
