Rear Admiral Johan Norlén, the newly appointed Chief of the Swedish Navy, has assumed his role amidst a complex geopolitical landscape. The war in Ukraine has dramatically escalated tensions in the Baltic Sea, with recent incidents including the severing of undersea cables between Sweden and Lithuania, and later between Finland and Estonia, adding to the growing list of security concerns. Norlén acknowledges the escalating situation and expresses concern over the increasing number of incidents requiring response. He emphasizes the Swedish Navy’s current focus on developing systems, in conjunction with allies, to expedite reaction times and deter further hostile activities within the Baltic Sea region. This proactive approach aims to enhance security and maintain stability in the increasingly volatile Baltic Sea.
Despite these challenges, Norlén maintains that Finland and Sweden, working in close cooperation, maintain effective oversight of the approximately 4,000 daily vessel movements within the Baltic Sea. He highlights the joint investigation of the tanker Eagle S, suspected in the Finland-Estonia cable incident, as an exemplary case of Finnish-Swedish collaboration. The efficient coordination between the two navies, including the deployment of the Swedish submarine rescue vessel HMS Belos to retrieve the tanker’s anchor and the involvement of Swedish-trained Finnish divers, underscores the strong bilateral partnership and the ability to provide mutual support when needed. This incident serves as a demonstration of the practical application of the countries’ close defense ties in responding to emerging security challenges.
While the cable incidents demand attention, Norlén expresses greater concern regarding the seaworthiness of the heavily laden tankers comprising the so-called ”shadow fleet” operating under the Russian flag, largely due to sanctions evasion. He observes that these vessels, now used to circumvent international sanctions, are significantly older than those employed by Russia before the war, raising concerns about their safety and insurance status. The difficulty in contacting the vessels’ agents adds another layer of complexity. Norlén points out that the Baltic Sea, a sensitive inland sea, is particularly vulnerable to environmental disasters. A major oil spill, he suggests, constitutes the most alarming potential scenario, further complicated by the potential absence of accountable parties and the likely burden of clean-up costs falling upon affected states.
The potential environmental and economic consequences of such an incident are significant, as the Baltic Sea’s delicate ecosystem and the economies of its surrounding countries would be severely impacted. Furthermore, Norlén acknowledges the dependence of the Russian war economy on the continuous flow of maritime traffic through the Baltic Sea, emphasizing the shared interest in preventing an environmental catastrophe that would disrupt this flow and have wide-ranging consequences for all involved. The current situation necessitates a delicate balance between maintaining maritime security and preventing an incident that could have far-reaching environmental and economic repercussions.
Norlén expresses hope that the sanctions against Russia will eventually achieve their intended effect. In the meantime, he emphasizes the Swedish Navy’s primary mission, in cooperation with other Baltic Sea states, to reinforce military presence as a deterrent and maintain comprehensive maritime situational awareness. This continuous monitoring, from the Bothnian Bay to the North Sea, is crucial for effective response to emerging threats and maintaining regional stability. While focused on the broader security picture, Norlén does not currently perceive a direct threat to the numerous passenger ferries and cruise ships operating in the Baltic Sea. He emphasizes the observed increase in incidents targeting undersea cables and critical infrastructure while acknowledging the presence of speculation surrounding other potential threats. His focus remains on addressing concrete threats and maintaining comprehensive maritime domain awareness.
Regarding Sweden’s submarine capabilities, Norlén confirms their diverse roles within the evolving security context, though he refrains from providing specific details. He underscores the value of these capabilities, particularly as they integrate into the NATO alliance. While submarines are primarily deployed for reconnaissance, offensive operations, and intelligence gathering, they are not suited for investigating cable incidents due to the lack of specialized sensors required for such tasks. Surface vessels are better equipped for these investigations, making it unlikely that submarines would be deployed for this purpose in the future. Norlén expresses support for Poland’s proposal for a joint Baltic Sea naval surveillance program, viewing it as a continuation of existing collaborative efforts and a means to enhance coordination among regional partners. He acknowledges the prevailing sense of unease due to global instability but emphasizes the collective efforts by Finland and Sweden, strengthening NATO and contributing to regional security. The focus remains on maximizing military readiness as the most effective deterrent against potential threats.
