The 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which saw Alexander Lukashenko claim victory with 80% of the vote, was widely condemned as fraudulent by international observers and rejected by the European Union. This marked a continuation of a pattern of disputed elections in Belarus, with no election since 1994 having been deemed free and fair by international bodies. The declared outcome of the 2020 election ignited widespread protests across the country, resulting in thousands of arrests and a brutal crackdown on dissent by Lukashenko’s regime. However, the political landscape leading up to the upcoming election stands in stark contrast to the turbulent period following the 2020 vote.
The atmosphere surrounding the current election is markedly different, characterized by a pervasive sense of repression and fear. Dmitri Vasserman, affiliated with the Belarusian People’s Embassy in Sweden – an entity independent of the Lukashenko regime – notes the significant shift in control exerted by the government. The authorities have intensified their surveillance and repression, effectively stifling any potential for organized opposition or public dissent. This intensified control has created an environment where any form of opposition is immediately suppressed, leaving citizens fearful of expressing their views or participating in any form of protest. This climate of fear and suppression stands in stark contrast to the mass protests that followed the 2020 election, indicating the regime’s success in crushing dissent.
The absence of genuine opposition candidates and independent election observers further underscores the undemocratic nature of the electoral process. Even Lukashenko himself appears disengaged from the proceedings, publicly stating his lack of interest in the campaign. This apathy from the incumbent leader highlights the predetermined nature of the election, further reinforcing the perception that it is merely a formality designed to legitimize his continued rule. The lack of genuine competition and independent oversight essentially renders the election a hollow exercise, devoid of any real democratic meaning.
A notable change in this election is the restriction on voting for Belarusians living abroad. Previously, citizens residing outside Belarus could cast their ballots at designated polling stations in their respective countries of residence. However, this year, they are required to return to Belarus to vote, a move criticized as ironic and restrictive by Alesia Rudnik, a political science doctoral candidate and CEO of a Belarusian think tank. This new regulation effectively disenfranchises a significant portion of the Belarusian diaspora, preventing them from participating in the electoral process and further limiting the potential for any challenge to the incumbent regime.
As the election unfolds in Belarus, symbolic protests are planned in other countries, including Sweden, where demonstrators intend to shred ballot papers in a public display of rejection of the electoral process. This symbolic act aims to highlight the lack of legitimacy of the election and express solidarity with the Belarusian people. These demonstrations, while occurring outside Belarus, serve as a reminder of the international community’s condemnation of the undemocratic practices of the Lukashenko regime. They represent a form of external pressure and a voice for those within Belarus who are silenced by fear and repression.
Despite these symbolic acts of defiance, the reality remains that Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as Europe’s last dictator, faces virtually no credible challenge to his continued rule. The four registered candidates are widely considered to be token figures, posing no real threat to the incumbent. The European Parliament, among other international bodies, has preemptively condemned the election, underscoring the widespread recognition of its flawed and undemocratic nature. Dmitri Vasserman expresses skepticism about the scale of protests this time around, attributing the anticipated low turnout to fear of reprisals from the regime. The pervasive atmosphere of fear and repression has effectively stifled dissent and created a sense of resignation among many Belarusians, making widespread protests unlikely. This subdued response reflects the chilling effect of the regime’s crackdown and its success in suppressing any organized opposition.
