On Christmas Day at lunchtime, a power outage was reported on the Estlink 2 undersea cable, a crucial energy link between Finland and Estonia. While the exact cause of the disruption remained unclear in the initial stages, the possibility of sabotage was not ruled out by Arto Pahkin, a representative from Fingrid, the Finnish national grid operator. This incident follows a previous shutdown of Estlink 2 earlier in 2024 due to a short circuit, a repair process that extended into September. While Pahkin acknowledged the frequency of such issues, stating similar problems had occurred around ten times during the year, the timing and context of this outage raised immediate concerns, especially given ongoing investigations into suspected sabotage of other undersea cables in the region. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo assured the public that the outage would not affect the energy supply within Finland, and confirmed that authorities were investigating the incident.
The Estlink 2 cable, stretching 170 kilometers across the Gulf of Finland, connects Borgå in Finland to Püssi in Estonia, with the majority of its length submerged. At the time of the outage, it was operating at a capacity of approximately 650 megawatts. Importantly, the parallel Estlink 1 cable remained operational and unaffected. This redundancy in the energy connection between Finland and Estonia likely contributed to Prime Minister Orpo’s confidence in maintaining a stable energy supply despite the Estlink 2 outage. However, the incident adds to a growing unease regarding the vulnerability of critical undersea infrastructure, following the November incidents involving data cables between Sweden and Lithuania, and Finland and Germany.
The November incidents involving the damaged data cables between Sweden and Lithuania, and Finland and Germany, introduced a new dimension of concern to the region. These cables mysteriously ceased functioning shortly after the passage of a Chinese vessel, the Yi Peng 3, drawing the attention of authorities investigating potential sabotage. The vessel’s prolonged and unexplained stay in the Kattegat for over a month further fuelled suspicions. The timing of the Estlink 2 outage, so close to these earlier incidents and in a region with heightened security concerns, understandably prompted consideration of potential links and raised the possibility of a broader pattern of targeted disruption to undersea infrastructure.
The investigation into the Yi Peng 3’s potential involvement in the November cable incidents had faced diplomatic hurdles. While Swedish police and officials from the Swedish Accident Investigation Authority were able to board the vessel before Christmas, their ability to conduct a thorough investigation was limited. The Chinese government reportedly restricted the scope of the Swedish investigation, preventing the police from carrying out certain investigative procedures, a constraint criticized by Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard. The limited access granted to Swedish authorities complicated the investigation and underscores the challenges of conducting thorough inquiries into incidents involving foreign vessels in international waters. This situation highlights the complex interplay between national security concerns, international law, and diplomatic relations.
The confluence of these incidents – the Estlink 2 power outage on Christmas Day and the preceding damage to data cables in November – creates a heightened sense of vulnerability related to critical undersea infrastructure. While isolated incidents can occur due to technical malfunctions or natural causes, the proximity of these events and the suspicions surrounding the Yi Peng 3 necessitate a thorough investigation into the possibility of coordinated and deliberate actions targeting vital connections within the region. The implications of such actions extend beyond immediate disruptions to connectivity and power supply, raising broader concerns about regional security and the potential for escalating tensions. The situation calls for international cooperation and transparent investigations to determine the true cause of these incidents and to develop effective measures to secure critical undersea infrastructure.
The ongoing investigations into both the Estlink 2 power outage and the November data cable incidents are crucial for establishing a clear understanding of the events and for ensuring the future security of vital undersea connections. Determining whether these incidents are isolated or part of a broader pattern of targeted disruption will inform the appropriate response and preventative measures. Furthermore, the investigations highlight the need for enhanced surveillance and security protocols for undersea infrastructure to mitigate future risks. The geopolitical implications of these incidents are significant, impacting not only regional stability but also international relations, particularly given the suspicions directed towards a foreign vessel. The outcomes of these investigations will be closely watched, as they will likely shape future policy and security strategies related to the protection of critical infrastructure in an increasingly interconnected world.
