Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, emerged as a global health concern in 2022, sparking fears of another pandemic following closely on the heels of COVID-19. While the risk of mpox evolving into a full-blown pandemic is currently considered low, it is not entirely negligible. Understanding the factors contributing to this assessment requires a closer examination of the virus’s transmission dynamics, the global response to its emergence, and the ongoing surveillance and preventative measures in place. Several key elements distinguish mpox from highly pandemic-prone viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2, providing reassurance but also demanding continued vigilance.
One crucial difference lies in the mode of transmission. Unlike respiratory viruses that can spread easily through airborne droplets, mpox primarily transmits through close physical contact, including skin-to-skin contact, contact with contaminated materials like bedding or clothing, and, less commonly, through respiratory droplets during prolonged face-to-face interactions. This limited transmission route makes containing outbreaks more manageable, as it allows for targeted interventions such as contact tracing, isolation of infected individuals, and education about safe practices. Furthermore, the relatively long incubation period of mpox, typically ranging from 5 to 21 days, provides a window of opportunity to identify and isolate potential cases before they become highly infectious, thus interrupting chains of transmission.
Another factor contributing to the lower pandemic risk is the existence of pre-existing immunity within certain populations. Smallpox vaccination, while no longer routinely administered, offers some cross-protection against mpox due to the viruses’ close genetic relationship. Individuals who received the smallpox vaccine, particularly those vaccinated before its discontinuation in the 1970s, likely have some level of residual immunity, which could help mitigate the spread of mpox. This pre-existing immunity, while not universal, contributes to the slower and less explosive growth of mpox outbreaks compared to viruses encountering entirely susceptible populations.
The rapid and coordinated global response to the 2022 mpox outbreak further reduced the risk of a pandemic. Public health agencies worldwide, including the World Health Organization (WHO), quickly mobilized resources to track the spread of the virus, provide guidance on prevention and treatment, and support affected countries in implementing control measures. This swift and collaborative approach, informed by lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, played a critical role in containing the outbreak and preventing its wider dissemination. The availability of diagnostic tests, antiviral treatments, and the smallpox vaccine, which can be used both pre- and post-exposure to mpox, further strengthened the response and limited the virus’s impact.
In Sweden, as in many other countries, a robust public health infrastructure and proactive measures have contributed to the low risk assessment. The Swedish Public Health Agency (Folkhälsomyndigheten) has implemented a comprehensive surveillance system to monitor the emergence and spread of mpox, allowing for rapid detection and response to potential outbreaks. This system includes close collaboration with healthcare providers, laboratories, and other relevant stakeholders to ensure timely identification and reporting of suspected cases. Furthermore, Sweden has secured access to smallpox vaccines, which are being offered to high-risk groups, including healthcare workers and close contacts of infected individuals, as a preventative measure.
Despite the currently low pandemic risk, continued vigilance and proactive measures remain essential. Ongoing surveillance is crucial to track the evolution of the virus, identify any changes in transmission patterns, and detect emerging variants. Maintaining public awareness about mpox, its symptoms, and preventative measures is also vital to encourage responsible behavior and limit transmission. While the current assessment is reassuring, the situation requires continuous monitoring and adaptation of strategies to ensure that mpox remains contained and does not evolve into a larger global health threat. The experience with mpox underscores the importance of robust public health systems, international cooperation, and ongoing research to effectively address emerging infectious diseases and mitigate their potential impact.
