The initial DN/Ipsos voter barometer of the year reveals a largely stagnant Swedish political landscape. While the difference between the political blocs has slightly increased, favouring the red-green coalition, the overall picture remains static. The January survey places the Social Democrats (S), Centre Party (C), Left Party (V), and Green Party (MP) approximately seven percentage points ahead of the Moderates (M), Christian Democrats (KD), Liberals (L), and Sweden Democrats (SD). This lead, however, is tempered by the historical trend of government coalition voters mobilizing closer to election time, potentially narrowing the current gap.
A key shift in the January survey is the Social Democrats’ three-percentage-point rise to 34%, coupled with the Left Party’s one-percentage-point decline to 8%, their lowest figure in eighteen months. This drop for the Left Party is attributed to a challenging period marked by recurring accusations of antisemitism within the party, leading to a flow of voters back to the Social Democrats. While the Social Democrats’ 34% surpasses their 2022 election result of 30.3%, it remains below the peaks reached six months after the Tidö coalition government took office. This places the Social Democrats in a comparatively strong position historically, but below their high-water mark in the current parliamentary term.
The stability of the ruling coalition’s two largest parties, the Moderates and Sweden Democrats, remains a significant feature of the political landscape. Despite the controversy surrounding the government’s national security advisor, Henrik Landerholm, the Moderates maintain 19% support, while the Sweden Democrats remain the second-largest party at 20%. This steadfast support suggests that recent political turbulence has not significantly impacted voter preferences, reinforcing the overall impression of a static political environment.
Smaller parties face a more precarious situation. Both the Liberals and Christian Democrats linger below the 4% parliamentary threshold, each holding 3% support. The Centre Party experiences a slight decline, landing at 5%, while the Green Party maintains a slightly higher position at 6%. These figures highlight the challenges faced by smaller parties in gaining traction amidst the dominance of the larger political blocs and the overall stability in voter preferences.
The current political climate appears largely impervious to external influences. Neither global unrest nor the change in US presidency seems to have impacted Swedish voter sentiment. This can be attributed to the entrenched positions within Swedish domestic politics and the relative lack of new initiatives from the parties. Analysts suggest that significant shifts in public opinion will require either unforeseen events that reshape the political agenda or innovative policy proposals from parties that resonate with the electorate. As long as parties adhere to established routines, significant opinion fluctuations are unlikely.
The Ipsos survey, conducted between January 14th and 26th, involved 2051 eligible voters, employing a mix of telephone interviews, digital surveys, SMS-link responses, and digital interviews within a randomly recruited web panel. Of these participants, 1818 indicated their party preference. The survey employed quota sampling to ensure representative respondents. However, traditional margin of error calculations are not applicable due to this sampling method. The estimates are rounded to whole numbers to minimize the emphasis on minor fluctuations. The survey posed the question: ”If there were a parliamentary election today, which party would you vote for?” The proportion of undecided voters stood at 12%. Further details regarding sampling, attrition, and response rates are available from Ipsos or their analyst, Nicklas Källebring. This methodological information provides context and transparency to the survey results, allowing for a more informed understanding of the political landscape depicted.
