Paragraph 1: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and the Shift in Swedish Public Opinion
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 dramatically altered the Swedish public’s stance on NATO membership. While opposition to joining the alliance had been declining in the years prior, there was no consistent majority support for abandoning Sweden’s long-held policy of neutrality before the war. The invasion acted as a catalyst, rapidly shifting public opinion in favor of NATO membership. This shift underscored the perceived threat from Russia and the desire for collective security within the alliance framework.
Paragraph 2: Growing Support for NATO Membership and Sweden’s Application
By early March 2022, polls indicated a significant swing, with supporters of NATO membership outnumbering opponents for the first time. This momentum continued to build, and by May 2022, when the Swedish government under Magdalena Andersson formally submitted the country’s application to join NATO, nearly six out of ten Swedes expressed support for the move. The invasion of Ukraine served as a turning point, solidifying public opinion in favor of joining the alliance for enhanced security and protection.
Paragraph 3: Sustained Support for NATO Membership and Sweden’s Accession
Despite a protracted and complex accession process, public support for NATO membership in Sweden remained strong. Even after Sweden officially became a full member in March 2024, public approval has held steady. Recent polls consistently show approximately 62% of Swedes in favor of NATO membership, with opposition hovering around 19%. This stability demonstrates the enduring shift in public opinion regarding security policy and the perceived benefits of alliance membership.
Paragraph 4: Demographic and Political Divides on NATO Membership
While a clear majority supports NATO membership, some demographic and political divisions exist. Men and older citizens tend to be more enthusiastic about the alliance than women and younger individuals, although all these groups still show majority support. The most significant differences, however, are correlated with political affiliation. Supporters of NATO membership hold a majority in all political parties except the Green Party and the Left Party, with the latter showing the strongest opposition. This reflects differing ideological perspectives on security policy and international alliances.
Paragraph 5: Increased Confidence in Swedish Defense Capabilities and Subsequent Decline
The confirmation of Sweden’s NATO accession coincided with a boost in public confidence in the country’s defense capabilities. This marked a historic reversal, with more people expressing confidence in the military’s ability to defend the nation than those lacking confidence, a first in a decade of polling. However, more recent surveys indicate a slight decline in this confidence, although it remains higher than historical lows. This dip is potentially linked to uncertainties surrounding US support for NATO under the Trump administration, highlighting the influence of external factors on public perception of national security.
Paragraph 6: Polling Methodology and Further Context
The data on public opinion regarding NATO membership and defense capabilities comes from polls conducted by Ipsos, using a combination of online and telephone surveys. The methodology involved both random sampling and quota sampling to ensure representative results. While the specific margin of error is not calculable due to the mixed methodology, the trends observed are significant and reflect a clear shift in public opinion. These findings are contextualized by Sweden’s historical stance of neutrality, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and debates about the future of European security. Furthermore, Sweden’s NATO membership brings new responsibilities and commitments, including participation in joint exercises, defense planning, and contributions to NATO forces.
