The rapid fall of the al-Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist rebel forces, triggered a swift Russian evacuation of personnel and equipment from their two key Syrian bases: the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase. This retreat, mirroring a similar withdrawal after the initial regime collapse to these same coastal locations, underscored a humiliating setback for Putin, whose military intervention in 2015 had aimed to prop up al-Assad’s rule. The swiftness of the opposition offensive exposed Russia’s inability to protect its crucial Middle Eastern ally and raised questions about the future of Russian influence in the region. Putin’s admission that Russia facilitated the evacuation of 4,000 pro-Iranian soldiers from Khmeimim further highlighted the shifting power dynamics.
The fate of the Russian bases remained uncertain in the immediate aftermath of the regime change. Moscow, despite its previous characterization of HTS as terrorists, initiated tentative discussions with the new leadership in Damascus regarding the bases’ future. While assurances were received that the bases wouldn’t be attacked, the newly established Syrian government delivered a decisive blow to Russian ambitions by annulling the 49-year lease agreement for the Tartus port, signed with al-Assad in 2017. Coupled with the demand for an immediate withdrawal of all Russian forces, this action signaled a significant shift in the regional power balance, undermining Russia’s Mediterranean foothold and challenging its global aspirations. The loss of Tartus, Russia’s sole permanent Mediterranean base, dealt a substantial blow to its naval power projection capabilities.
The repercussions of losing these strategic bases extend far beyond the Mediterranean. The Khmeimim airbase, established in 2015, had served as a crucial hub for Russian military operations, providing air support to al-Assad’s forces and facilitating the deployment of materiel and Wagner mercenaries to Moscow’s allies in Africa. The loss of this airbase severely restricts Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa, disrupting its logistical networks and weakening its influence in regions where it had cultivated strategic partnerships, particularly in countries like Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Niger. This withdrawal represents a significant curtailment of Russian military reach and political leverage.
The forced evacuation from Syria necessitates a strategic reassessment for Russia, particularly concerning its ambitions in Africa. With lucrative interests tied to resource extraction and mercenary operations, Moscow is now compelled to seek alternative basing locations to maintain its influence and secure its economic interests. One potential option is eastern Libya, where a Russian facility built in Benghazi in 2008 under Muammar Gaddafi could be revived. Furthermore, a 2023 defense agreement between Russia and the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar, fuels speculation about a potential base in Tobruk. However, such ventures face inherent challenges, including the time-consuming process of establishing new bases and the logistical complexities associated with their remote locations.
The loss of the Syrian bases represents a major strategic setback for Russia, not just militarily but also politically. It undermines Russia’s standing as a global power, diminishes its ability to project force in strategically important regions, and necessitates a costly and potentially risky search for alternative basing options. The swift change of power in Syria underscores the volatility of the region and the precarious nature of alliances, leaving Moscow scrambling to adapt to a new geopolitical landscape. The vacuum created by Russia’s withdrawal will likely be filled by other regional players such as Turkey, Israel, and the United States, further complicating the already complex dynamics of the area.
The unfolding events in Syria have far-reaching implications for Russia’s global ambitions. The loss of its Mediterranean bases not only restricts its military reach but also calls into question its ability to effectively support its allies and safeguard its economic interests, particularly in resource-rich Africa. The speed and decisiveness of the regime change highlight the limitations of Russian power projection and serve as a cautionary tale of the risks associated with intervention in complex regional conflicts. The future of Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa now hinges on its ability to adapt to this new reality and secure alternative strategic footholds.
