The Decline of ISIS and the Shifting Landscape of Terrorism
The Syrian political landscape underwent a dramatic transformation in December with the ousting of former dictator Bashar al-Assad and the subsequent rise to power of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This regime change, according to researcher Mohamed Fahmi at the University of ULB in Belgium, has significantly weakened the Islamic State (ISIS). ISIS’s initial appeal in Syria stemmed from its purported defense of Sunni Muslims against the Assad regime’s atrocities. With a Sunni Islamist group now in control, ISIS has lost its central motivating factor and its raison d’être. While ISIS has managed to seize some villages and weapons caches following Assad’s fall, they lack the resources necessary to occupy and control major cities, highlighting their diminished capacity.
The loss of both political legitimacy and the ability to project force has driven ISIS to rely on conspiracy theories in their criticism of HTS, a clear sign of weakness. Their rhetoric paints HTS as American and Zionist puppets, further isolating them from potential sympathizers. Currently, ISIS’s membership in Iraq and Syria is estimated at around 2,000, a stark contrast to its peak strength of at least 60,000 members between 2015 and 2016. This drastic reduction in numbers further underscores the group’s declining influence and operational capabilities.
The risk of Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe has significantly decreased since the height of ISIS’s power in 2014-2016. While attacks still occur, they are less frequent and less deadly, as evidenced by the trends in countries like Belgium, Germany, and France. However, the decline in attacks does not signify the eradication of radicalization. The threat, rather than emanating from well-organized external entities, has shifted towards a more insidious form of homegrown radicalization. Large numbers of individuals are immersed in radical online environments, consuming ISIS propaganda and potentially becoming susceptible to extremist ideologies.
Despite the ongoing online radicalization, the ability of extremist groups to orchestrate large-scale attacks has been significantly hampered. Such attacks typically require a structured organization with members willing to carry out acts of terror. Currently, while groups like ISIS, Hezbollah, and Hamas remain active, none possess the combination of intent and capability to pose a substantial threat of large-scale attacks in Europe. ISIS lacks the resources, while Hezbollah and Hamas have no strategic interest in conducting such attacks.
Recent incidents, such as the New Year’s Eve attack in New Orleans, often raise questions about the direct involvement of groups like ISIS. While the perpetrator claimed allegiance to ISIS in a video, preliminary investigations suggest an individual act rather than a coordinated effort. The perpetrator’s initial intent to harm his family before shifting to a terrorist act further supports this theory. Similar lone-wolf attacks in Europe, such as the killing of two Swedish football fans in Brussels, driven by anti-Swedish sentiment fueled by Quran burnings and online ISIS propaganda, highlight the complex nature of contemporary terrorism.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza plays a significant role in the radicalization process, particularly in Europe. Radicalized individuals often consume large amounts of online content related to Palestine, further fueling their grievances and potentially inspiring violence. While the Jewish community in Europe has implemented robust security measures, mitigating the risk of large-scale attacks, the potential for spontaneous acts of violence remains. The Brussels attack, where the perpetrator happened upon his victims simply because they were wearing Swedish jerseys, illustrates the unpredictable nature of such attacks and the potential for seemingly random acts of violence motivated by broader geopolitical conflicts.
