The Shifting Sands of Kurdish Politics and the Turkish Endgame
Before the Syrian crisis further complicated the already intricate regional dynamics, Devlet Bahceli, the leader of Turkey’s far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), made a surprising peace overture. Bahceli, a sworn enemy of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Kurdish nationalism in general, offered a potential olive branch. His party’s support in parliament is crucial for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) to maintain its majority, a factor that adds significant weight to Bahceli’s pronouncements. The offer was conditional: if Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, renounced violence and dissolved the organization, he would be pardoned after serving a quarter-century on the prison island of Imrali.
Öcalan, having previously played a key role in peace negotiations between Erdogan and the PKK from 2009-2015, seemed receptive to the idea. His influence within the PKK was undeniable during those earlier talks, but the landscape had shifted considerably. Shortly after Bahceli’s proposal, the PKK’s current leadership responded with a deadly terror attack in Ankara, targeting the state-owned aerospace industries. This attack was open to interpretation, either as an outright rejection of peace or a message to the Turkish government demanding direct negotiations, bypassing Öcalan.
The subsequent re-election of Donald Trump as US President and the ascendance of Turkey-backed Sunni militias in Syria created a favorable environment for Ankara. Trump’s previous term saw him acquiesce to Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria and downplay the US’s close relationship with Syrian Kurds. The new Syrian leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa further bolstered Turkey’s position by demanding all armed groups, including the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), disarm. Against this backdrop, Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces and the YPG engaged in fierce clashes east of the Euphrates River, with Erdogan issuing a stark warning for Kurdish fighters to lay down their arms or face death.
For many years, the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad provided Öcalan and the PKK sanctuary in the border regions with Turkey. Syrian Kurds, facing extreme discrimination and often denied citizenship within Syria, forged an alliance with the PKK. This collaboration laid the foundation for the YPG’s military prowess, which stunned the world during the pivotal battle against ISIS in Kobane in 2014-2015.
Turkey’s primary objective is to prevent the establishment of a permanent Kurdish de facto state in northeastern Syria, known as Rojava. Ankara fears such a state, bordering Turkey’s own Kurdish regions, would inspire Turkish Kurds and provide fertile ground for PKK activity. A ceasefire between the PKK and Turkey, coupled with pressure from the Syrian regime on the YPG, would effectively dismantle the aspirations for a unified Kurdistan, a key concern for Turkey.
In this scenario envisioned by Erdogan and Bahceli, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) plays a crucial role. Despite being Turkey’s third-largest party, the HDP faces severe discrimination, with its leaders imprisoned, elected mayors removed from office, and parliamentary immunity stripped from its representatives. Planned visits by HDP members to Öcalan are seen as a potential bridge to the PKK leadership in the Qandil Mountains of Iraq, with hopes of reviving the stalled peace process. The success of this strategy hinges on a complex interplay of internal Turkish politics, regional power dynamics, and the willingness of all parties to engage in meaningful dialogue.
The intricate web of alliances, rivalries, and political maneuvering highlights the fragility of the situation. Turkey’s strategic interests, the aspirations of Kurdish groups, and the influence of international actors create a volatile mix. The path towards a lasting peace remains uncertain, fraught with obstacles and potential pitfalls. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the tentative steps towards dialogue can translate into a genuine and sustainable peace or if the region will descend into further conflict. The outcome will have profound implications not only for Turkey and Syria but for the wider Middle East.
