The year 2024 has been confirmed as the warmest year on record globally, exceeding the pre-industrial average temperature by more than 1.5°C, according to data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This marks a significant milestone, signifying the first time a calendar year has surpassed this critical threshold, a key target outlined in the Paris Agreement. While alarming, this single year exceeding the 1.5°C limit doesn’t signal the failure of the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the long-term global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The agreement acknowledges that individual years may exceed this limit, but the focus remains on sustained long-term trends. This unprecedented temperature record underscores the urgency of intensifying global efforts to mitigate climate change and adapt to its increasingly evident impacts.
The record-breaking warmth of 2024 was driven by a confluence of factors, including the ongoing influence of human-induced climate change, primarily through greenhouse gas emissions, and the naturally occurring El Niño climate pattern. El Niño, characterized by warming waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically elevates global temperatures. However, the magnitude of the 2024 warming highlights that the underlying human-induced warming trend is the dominant driver, amplifying the effects of natural climate variability. The exceptionally high temperatures experienced throughout the year contributed to several extreme weather events across the globe, including intense heatwaves, devastating wildfires, heavy rainfall, and flooding, further emphasizing the interconnectedness between a warming climate and increased climate-related hazards.
The 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement is not simply a symbolic marker but represents a critical point beyond which the risks of irreversible climate impacts escalate significantly. Exceeding this limit, even for a single year, provides a stark glimpse into the future if global warming continues unchecked. The impacts associated with this level of warming include increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, sea-level rise, disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity, and potential threats to food and water security. While the surpassing of the 1.5°C limit in 2024 does not signify the complete breaching of the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals, it serves as a powerful reminder of the urgency of accelerated climate action.
While the surpassing of the 1.5°C threshold in a single year is a serious development, it is important to reiterate that the Paris Agreement’s target refers to a long-term average over several years, not a single year’s temperature. The goal remains to limit the long-term global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Achieving this requires sustained and substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, alongside significant investments in adaptation measures to build resilience against the inevitable impacts of a changing climate. The current trajectory of emissions indicates that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C over a multi-year average within the next decade unless drastic and immediate action is taken.
The 2024 record underscores the necessity for a rapid transition towards a low-carbon economy. This necessitates a global effort involving governments, industries, and individuals. Key strategies include accelerating the deployment of renewable energy technologies, enhancing energy efficiency, promoting sustainable land use practices, and fostering international cooperation on climate action. Furthermore, investing in research and development for climate-friendly technologies, as well as supporting climate adaptation and resilience measures, are essential components of a comprehensive response. The current situation calls for ambitious national commitments and concrete actions to align with the Paris Agreement’s objectives and avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
The message from the 2024 temperature record is clear: the window of opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5°C and avoid the most severe impacts of climate change is rapidly closing. While exceeding this threshold in a single year does not necessarily mean the Paris Agreement has failed, it serves as an urgent call to action. The global community must significantly accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, invest in climate adaptation measures, and build a more sustainable and resilient future. Delaying action further will only exacerbate the risks and costs associated with climate change, jeopardizing the well-being of current and future generations. The time for decisive and transformative action is now.
