The Israeli cabinet meeting regarding the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas has been postponed indefinitely, pending confirmation from Israeli mediators in Qatar that Hamas has accepted all its commitments as outlined in Wednesday’s agreement. A source within the Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed this to the Swedish newspaper, Dagens Nyheter (DN), citing the need for absolute certainty regarding Hamas’s compliance. However, Hamas vehemently denies any new demands, raising suspicions that this delay might be a tactical maneuver by Prime Minister Netanyahu to address internal political challenges within his fragile coalition government. Netanyahu spent Thursday morning engaged in intense negotiations with extremist coalition partners who have threatened to withdraw their support if the government fully implements all three stages of the exchange agreement.
The crux of the issue lies in the extremist factions’ resistance to any agreement that could be perceived as a victory for Hamas. If Israel proceeds with the full implementation of the agreement, which includes the release of Palestinian prisoners, it effectively signals an end to the current conflict, starkly contrasting with Netanyahu’s repeated pronouncements of achieving a ”total victory” over Hamas. This discrepancy in messaging poses a serious threat to Netanyahu’s political standing within his own right-wing base and jeopardizes the stability of his coalition. While the extremist elements cannot directly prevent the cabinet from approving the Qatar-brokered deal, their potential withdrawal from the government poses a significant parliamentary challenge for Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s primary concern isn’t the approval of the deal by the cabinet, but rather the potential fallout within his coalition. Should Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionism party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir of the Jewish Power party withdraw their support, Netanyahu risks losing his majority in the Knesset, which ultimately needs to ratify the agreement. While opposition parties have pledged their support for the deal should the extremist factions attempt to block it, navigating this political minefield will require deft maneuvering from Netanyahu. He is under immense pressure from Smotrich, who demands assurances that the war against Hamas in Gaza will be resumed after the first two phases of the complex prisoner exchange are completed.
Netanyahu’s predicament is further complicated by the involvement of former US President Donald Trump, who played a pivotal role in brokering the agreement. Breaking the agreement, which Trump essentially imposed, would be a diplomatic affront to the former president, whose support Netanyahu desperately seeks. Furthermore, any breach of the agreement before the final stage could jeopardize the release of the captured Israeli soldiers held by Hamas, leading to devastating social and political repercussions within Israel. This intricate web of political considerations leaves Netanyahu with limited room for maneuver.
While Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have publicly stated they won’t actively topple Netanyahu’s coalition even if they withdraw their support, their actions could trigger a chain of events leading to new elections, which current polls suggest they are likely to lose. Netanyahu is acutely aware of this possibility and understands the delicate balance he needs to maintain. He knows the limits of what their constituents will tolerate and must carefully calibrate his response to avoid alienating his extremist allies while simultaneously upholding the terms of the agreement.
Looming large on the horizon is the next phase of Trump’s Middle East vision: the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are reportedly keen on establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, but are hesitant to do so without addressing the Palestinian issue. They are likely to demand, potentially with Trump’s backing, concrete steps towards a Palestinian state or at the very least, a firm commitment to that objective. Any such concession from Israel would almost certainly force the extremist parties to withdraw from the coalition, potentially collapsing the government and plunging Israel into another period of political uncertainty. This presents a daunting challenge for Netanyahu, who must navigate these complex geopolitical currents while simultaneously managing the precarious political landscape at home.
